
Linear Regression - Estimation by Least Squares
Dependent Variable NFP_LOG
Quarterly Data From 1949:04 To 2016:02
Usable Observations                       267
Degrees of Freedom                        262
Centered R^2                        0.9928381
R-Bar^2                             0.9927288
Uncentered R^2                      0.9999927
Mean of Dependent Variable       1138.7871911
Std Error of Dependent Variable    36.5363132
Standard Error of Estimate          3.1155087
Sum of Squared Residuals         2543.0754081
Regression F(4,262)                 9080.1198
Significance Level of F             0.0000000
Log Likelihood                      -679.7497
Durbin-Watson Statistic                0.2105

    Variable                        Coeff      Std Error      T-Stat      Signif
************************************************************************************
1.  Constant                      31.30019199   5.89394513      5.31057  0.00000023
2.  NFP_LOG{8}                     2.27980120   0.38626540      5.90216  0.00000001
3.  NFP_LOG{9}                    -1.70434168   0.77232417     -2.20677  0.02819764
4.  NFP_LOG{10}                   -0.18295335   0.77158122     -0.23711  0.81275300
5.  NFP_LOG{11}                    0.58286331   0.38497973      1.51401  0.13122860


Linear Regression - Estimation by Least Squares
Dependent Variable NSA_LOG
Quarterly Data From 1949:04 To 2016:02
Usable Observations                       267
Degrees of Freedom                        262
Centered R^2                        0.9924565
R-Bar^2                             0.9923413
Uncentered R^2                      0.9999923
Mean of Dependent Variable       1139.1422237
Std Error of Dependent Variable    36.4481584
Standard Error of Estimate          3.1897144
Sum of Squared Residuals         2665.6608086
Regression F(4,262)                 8617.4886
Significance Level of F             0.0000000
Log Likelihood                      -686.0346
Durbin-Watson Statistic                0.1203

    Variable                        Coeff      Std Error      T-Stat      Signif
************************************************************************************
1.  Constant                      32.37916964   6.01128374      5.38640  0.00000016
2.  NSA_LOG{8}                     1.13588357   0.12715144      8.93331  0.00000000
3.  NSA_LOG{9}                    -0.14677556   0.15169384     -0.96758  0.33414769
4.  NSA_LOG{10}                   -0.09243268   0.15200578     -0.60809  0.54365678
5.  NSA_LOG{11}                    0.07782763   0.12686044      0.61349  0.54008454


Linear Regression - Estimation by Least Squares
Dependent Variable NFP_LOG
Quarterly Data From 1949:04 To 2016:02
Usable Observations                       267
Degrees of Freedom                        262
Centered R^2                        0.9928381
R-Bar^2                             0.9927288
Uncentered R^2                      0.9999927
Mean of Dependent Variable       1138.7871911
Std Error of Dependent Variable    36.5363132
Standard Error of Estimate          3.1155087
Sum of Squared Residuals         2543.0754081
Regression F(4,262)                 9080.1198
Significance Level of F             0.0000000
Log Likelihood                      -679.7497
Durbin-Watson Statistic                0.2105

    Variable                        Coeff      Std Error      T-Stat      Signif
************************************************************************************
1.  Constant                      31.30019199   5.89394513      5.31057  0.00000023
2.  NFP_LOG{8}                     2.27980120   0.38626540      5.90216  0.00000001
3.  NFP_LOG{9}                    -1.70434168   0.77232417     -2.20677  0.02819764
4.  NFP_LOG{10}                   -0.18295335   0.77158122     -0.23711  0.81275300
5.  NFP_LOG{11}                    0.58286331   0.38497973      1.51401  0.13122860



 ENTRY        NFP_LOG       REGRESSION       BASELINE
 1947:01   1068.295003455       NA              NA
 1947:02   1068.757172809       NA              NA
 1947:03   1069.650269224       NA              NA
 1947:04   1070.501817510       NA              NA
 1948:01   1070.730363431       NA              NA
 1948:02   1071.515083333       NA              NA
 1948:03   1072.095193010       NA              NA
 1948:04   1071.506200563       NA              NA
 1949:01   1069.733942722       NA          1.43893926697
 1949:02   1068.599543160       NA         -0.15762964873
 1949:03   1068.702373282       NA         -0.94789594205
 1949:04   1068.090694533 -7.828547703783  -2.41112297743
 1950:01   1069.085340834 -6.009598009819  -1.64502259763
 1950:02   1071.628269536 -5.230913862862   0.11318620337
 1950:03   1074.595950121 -2.702860196068   2.50075711032
 1950:04   1075.481300556  0.524337134105   3.97509999262
 1951:01   1077.626517208  5.354853539929   7.89257448608
 1951:02   1078.037195403  4.885321528728   9.43765224303
 1951:03   1077.801835016  2.501186026464   9.09946173383
 1951:04   1078.537315769  5.631872257432  10.44662123559
 1952:01   1078.940154775  3.404618847398   9.85481394165
 1952:02   1078.489694255 -1.319841026472   6.86142471901
 1952:03   1080.606468132 -1.096270567831   6.01051801159
 1952:04   1082.305291694  3.527566209420   6.82399113860
 1953:01   1082.923344318 -0.175341749095   5.29682711025
 1953:02   1083.016416396  1.069873532298   4.97922099315
 1953:03   1082.705176838  1.871581126356   4.90334182147
 1953:04   1081.380045272 -2.706667984539   2.84272950376
 1954:01   1080.279487937 -3.754536897471   1.33933316183
 1954:02   1079.745087253 -2.303660234800   1.25539299741
 1954:03   1079.716450954 -8.280842798703  -0.89001717838
 1954:04   1080.630796566 -7.948984587372  -1.67449512816
 1955:01   1081.903801048 -4.539813632899  -1.01954327059
 1955:02   1083.545476380 -2.979935652681   0.52905998326
 1955:03   1084.470501593 -2.063826622057   1.76532475574
 1955:04   1085.524194869  1.137232287958   4.14414959621
 1956:01   1086.465604319  2.218026100353   6.18611638185
 1956:02   1087.016716994  2.050713219823   7.27162974172
 1956:03   1087.049040995  1.808540845942   7.33259004132
 1956:04   1087.672556485  0.842428166763   7.04175991897
 1957:01   1088.100507783  0.232783096344   6.19670673510
 1957:02   1087.929170083 -1.327639762437   4.38369370360
 1957:03   1087.676334989 -1.191410834613   3.20583339588
 1957:04   1086.637556979 -3.497478614773   1.11336211012
 1958:01   1084.544603116 -6.728441364161  -1.92100120295
 1958:02   1083.785393114 -7.485981885505  -3.23132388059
 1958:03   1084.945358472 -5.902349656239  -2.10368252319
 1958:04   1086.068987492 -6.593005974440  -1.60356899353
 1959:01   1087.834903377 -5.055360110217  -0.26560440581
 1959:02   1089.077714256 -2.597324330291   1.14854417286
 1959:03   1088.610894870 -3.064877124817   0.93455988066
 1959:04   1089.997482640 -0.021783301611   3.35992566175
 1960:01   1090.518504135  3.553933699629   5.97390101933
 1960:02   1090.314469323  1.470958647274   6.52907620963
 1960:03   1090.095265920 -2.464135760484   5.14990744792
 1960:04   1089.198731185 -2.864337981129   3.12974369354
 1961:01   1089.046039500 -4.473183849468   1.21113612277
 1961:02   1089.631330889 -4.182059707587   0.55361663283
 1961:03   1090.389882028 -0.572920690616   1.77898715760
 1961:04   1091.274025478 -4.447452600339   1.27654283776
 1962:01   1092.009409692 -3.346469526897   1.49090555712
 1962:02   1092.672953418 -0.803995568525   2.35848409457
 1962:03   1093.269617107 -0.768205238528   3.17435118661
 1962:04   1093.360684476  0.652172434133   4.16195329069
 1963:01   1093.884050157  0.074463698690   4.83801065692
 1963:02   1094.478847449 -0.961584240025   4.84751656028
 1963:03   1095.215651240 -0.461967992606   4.82576921204
 1963:04   1095.710247527 -0.494133283014   4.43622204913
 1964:01   1096.643812065  0.067418568416   4.63440237268
 1964:02   1097.200139338  0.083969404272   4.52718592007
 1964:03   1098.364730213  0.638397140198   5.09511310633
 1964:04   1099.240297823  2.016037115512   5.87961334664
 1965:01   1100.214983995  1.675169824225   6.33093383892
 1965:02   1101.353421883  2.018469778515   6.87457443388
 1965:03   1102.662983895  2.704675116083   7.44733265515
 1965:04   1104.005372663  3.979017586700   8.29512513555
 1966:01   1105.393298984  3.869678625055   8.74948691941
 1966:02   1106.835563698  5.295772855314   9.63542436011
 1966:03   1107.665057247  4.300919218591   9.30032703399
 1966:04   1108.521474791  4.703718861644   9.28117696894
 1967:01   1109.026333203  4.367555983125   8.81134920793
 1967:02   1109.361495004  3.249894723358   8.00807312101
 1967:03   1109.989178736  2.500310413679   7.32619484146
 1967:04   1111.095424612  2.418290096749   7.09005194873
 1968:01   1111.684121867  1.706715465601   6.29082288236
 1968:02   1112.585022197  1.167338519815   5.74945849924
 1968:03   1113.439922522  2.060766928853   5.77486527492
 1968:04   1114.542066065  2.079084985960   6.02059127337
 1969:01   1115.489245642  2.646031303980   6.46291243884
 1969:02   1116.529520853  3.455858577520   7.16802584930
 1969:03   1116.926545811  2.586310807761   6.93736707469
 1969:04   1117.380973740  1.355561135467   6.28554912873
 1970:01   1117.678117457  2.115496419070   5.99399559010
 1970:02   1117.084352333  0.307736480999   4.49933013607
 1970:03   1116.970249333 -0.757013323214   3.53032681078
 1970:04   1116.747302677 -2.213893195101   2.20523661198
 1971:01   1116.844726599 -2.766116105969   1.35548095638
 1971:02   1117.399220251 -3.265574677230   0.86969939746
 1971:03   1117.908775493 -2.357282366675   0.98222968253
 1971:04   1118.592027412 -2.395123990983   1.21105367183
 1972:01   1119.746101151 -1.677679601274   2.06798369372
 1972:02   1120.857185823  1.145233765797   3.77283348961
 1972:03   1121.536812551  0.862508079358   4.56656321891
 1972:04   1122.883692803  2.241366393572   6.13639012603
 1973:01   1124.223160555  3.303958073372   7.37843395616
 1973:02   1125.009209049  3.017632537223   7.60998879802
 1973:03   1125.513870771  3.453427704657   7.60509527782
 1973:04   1126.491272298  3.786268565739   7.89924488547
 1974:01   1126.825179511  2.423642638228   7.07907835997
 1974:02   1127.215242339  2.075591438944   6.35805651557
 1974:03   1127.226691773  2.244194140479   5.68987922202
 1974:04   1126.005697261 -1.358494002216   3.12200445856
 1975:01   1124.699183790 -3.946454019821   0.47602323531
 1975:02   1124.530742355 -3.773732267931  -0.47846669336
 1975:03   1125.454326156 -3.200968624800  -0.05954461491
 1975:04   1126.469484828 -4.190891521481  -0.02178746973
 1976:01   1127.782319234 -2.339302297912   0.95713972306
 1976:02   1128.195133454 -2.361991717474   0.97989111546
 1976:03   1128.843100159 -1.583929158968   1.61640838503
 1976:04   1129.536629195  1.789479421716   3.53093193357
 1977:01   1130.701998077  3.627188853837   6.00281428669
 1977:02   1132.040810720  2.893210625688   7.51006836436
 1977:03   1133.298507096  2.230879666875   7.84418093934
 1977:04   1134.341746282  3.264563098608   7.87226145426
 1978:01   1135.581541051  3.508684729655   7.79922181741
 1978:02   1137.310002058  6.180933344175   9.11486860380
 1978:03   1138.074173527  5.819934735926   9.23107336835
 1978:04   1139.271072512  5.850404787437   9.73444331663
 1979:01   1140.177041560  5.159508318252   9.47504348368
 1979:02   1140.877532762  4.543167045324   8.83672204223
 1979:03   1141.116955602  4.006061875126   7.81844850592
 1979:04   1141.501490711  3.721452881946   7.15974442897
 1980:01   1141.854884926  2.476152517592   6.27334387490
 1980:02   1140.866434476 -0.882012484086   3.55643241768
 1980:03   1140.989556465  0.063597366975   2.91538293822
 1980:04   1141.798821562 -0.959823142655   2.52774905024
 1981:01   1142.091981917 -1.559816062537   1.91494035701
 1981:02   1142.398495567 -1.532633117247   1.52096280535
 1981:03   1142.386471673 -1.428495569170   1.26951607100
 1981:04   1141.743826950 -2.939644477147   0.24233623880
 1982:01   1141.235346604 -3.962901574188  -0.61953832151
 1982:02   1140.605269532 -1.806402434296  -0.26116494343
 1982:03   1139.844571745 -4.691927928888  -1.14498472055
 1982:04   1139.379276893 -7.179165229573  -2.41954466868
 1983:01   1139.740237371 -5.508630768184  -2.35174454595
 1983:02   1140.780936389 -4.590782053565  -1.61755917884
 1983:03   1142.132539419 -3.107419208230  -0.25393225339
 1983:04   1143.200820832 -0.709323124045   1.45699388240
 1984:01   1144.495706853  0.468655443166   3.26036024853
 1984:02   1145.613286656  2.045495748635   5.00801712432
 1984:03   1146.524668299  3.898796353631   6.68009655415
 1984:04   1147.321743310  4.641262007346   7.94246641646
 1985:01   1148.084638951  4.016294705877   8.34440157918
 1985:02   1148.718705573  3.251230021513   7.93776918399
 1985:03   1149.318183593  2.880270763130   7.18564417417
 1985:04   1149.891781432  3.302001482797   6.69096059921
 1986:01   1150.221834783  2.141383695680   5.72612792971
 1986:02   1150.443956132  1.430219327286   4.83066947553
 1986:03   1151.226524707  1.653998474571   4.70185640876
 1986:04   1151.802245323  1.415575658524   4.48050201316
 1987:01   1152.449824132  1.197736293270   4.36518518164
 1987:02   1153.174721921  1.391939696612   4.45601634857
 1987:03   1153.904145432  1.510327201240   4.58596183894
 1987:04   1154.891017869  1.882566708193   4.99923643741
 1988:01   1155.681794073  2.638595931489   5.45995929080
 1988:02   1156.479659238  3.248120163080   6.03570310602
 1988:03   1157.127927515  2.216913566905   5.90140280760
 1988:04   1157.970522266  2.929005861567   6.16827694317
 1989:01   1158.635249105  3.112313551345   6.18542497242
 1989:02   1159.012721787  2.590058444518   5.83799986629
 1989:03   1159.326043762  2.258823625669   5.42189832995
 1989:04   1159.771687967  1.452954305660   4.88067009762
 1990:01   1160.502139369  1.773495142567   4.82034529561
 1990:02   1160.698031172  1.253563245950   4.21837193390
 1990:03   1160.390811268  0.397718820562   3.26288375318
 1990:04   1160.056997482 -1.067115177900   2.08647521625
 1991:01   1159.521487768 -2.028444063332   0.88623866330
 1991:02   1159.301124864 -2.200144246779   0.28840307654
 1991:03   1159.302970921 -2.638771140945  -0.02307284106
 1991:04   1159.289124661 -3.452974886535  -0.48256330579
 1992:01   1159.328812145 -4.481733068132  -1.17332722359
 1992:02   1159.654024672 -3.459267922959  -1.04400649967
 1992:03   1159.879118595 -2.326018253467  -0.51169267355
 1992:04   1160.364329789 -1.993299934282   0.30733230688
 1993:01   1160.821746279 -1.054345558177   1.30025851110
 1993:02   1161.506680464 -0.661724425580   2.20555559976
 1993:03   1162.134031141 -0.317561563420   2.83106021953
 1993:04   1162.903599165  0.758532326812   3.61447450437
 1994:01   1163.733538315  1.603172336446   4.40472616905
 1994:02   1164.610929720  1.803175648095   4.95690504802
 1994:03   1165.489366741  2.738047973026   5.61024814684
 1994:04   1166.275826473  2.838325936861   5.91149668364
 1995:01   1166.918534744  3.116808442669   6.09678846452
 1995:02   1167.243888244  2.617814179608   5.73720778015
 1995:03   1167.748181751  2.660108813506   5.61415061041
 1995:04   1168.116500055  2.201884631985   5.21290089031
 1996:01   1168.689557868  1.910005934858   4.95601955299
 1996:02   1169.336191273  1.745996598570   4.72526155261
 1996:03   1169.879903921  1.485709393461   4.39053717928
 1996:04   1170.475996325  1.462767402471   4.20016985197
 1997:01   1171.177632372  1.688866197487   4.25909762791
 1997:02   1171.845886376  2.342650128105   4.60199813198
 1997:03   1172.484627626  2.045403075635   4.73644587506
 1997:04   1173.249463579  2.514948400840   5.13296352360
 1998:01   1173.748401470  2.237794209929   5.05884360267
 1998:02   1174.467190509  2.232524832106   5.13099923629
 1998:03   1175.016125264  2.534150723481   5.13622134339
 1998:04   1175.666348685  2.536363468255   5.19035236055
 1999:01   1176.168997831  2.177942203622   4.99136545975
 1999:02   1176.827286100  2.300718697503   4.98139972462
 1999:03   1177.368074341  2.305163293222   4.88344671440
 1999:04   1178.127180112  2.122529875314   4.87771653244
 2000:01   1178.758308630  2.647080092831   5.00990715974
 2000:02   1179.112522203  1.980588655935   4.64533169408
 2000:03   1179.340919138  1.828073137480   4.32479387410
 2000:04   1179.607980268  1.389018785663   3.94163158309
 2001:01   1179.623800490  1.048575451712   3.45480265912
 2001:02   1179.284246715 -0.136052195856   2.45696061426
 2001:03   1178.898778887 -0.919491600415   1.53070454603
 2001:04   1178.299076939 -2.500655559344   0.17189682786
 2002:01   1178.075935909 -3.153621600069  -0.68237272109
 2002:02   1178.053747437 -3.084012642460  -1.05877476644
 2002:03   1177.932771962 -3.448974592566  -1.40814717656
 2002:04   1177.916681919 -3.987701602127  -1.69129834965
 2003:01   1177.711882485 -3.938076693284  -1.91191800510
 2003:02   1177.678860556 -3.254284916842  -1.60538615853
 2003:03   1177.744893514 -3.040943364653  -1.15388537303
 2003:04   1178.003231175 -2.143716896598  -0.29584576453
 2004:01   1178.415798229 -2.117138868878   0.33986232025
 2004:02   1178.897261344 -1.850441435278   0.84351390702
 2004:03   1179.146587950 -1.054411670449   1.21381598878
 2004:04   1179.554474308 -0.690025493300   1.63779238924
 2005:01   1179.937427727  0.123206966601   2.22554524161
 2005:02   1180.525920164  0.505503066155   2.84705960756
 2005:03   1181.001068890  0.745738678761   3.25617537609
 2005:04   1181.431811641  0.813394243374   3.42858046566
 2006:01   1182.077039395  0.989674995885   3.66124116546
 2006:02   1182.288504086  0.815430277929   3.39124274224
 2006:03   1182.688182533  1.392176261550   3.54159458288
 2006:04   1182.967592817  1.014239556479   3.41311850898
 2007:01   1183.344977823  0.978732569551   3.40755009568
 2007:02   1183.562471655  0.436564955473   3.03655149168
 2007:03   1183.584919076  0.211080545480   2.58385018633
 2007:04   1183.799724839  0.138151411100   2.36791319851
 2008:01   1183.694910982 -0.959601229433   1.61787158790
 2008:02   1183.289078034 -0.945984012145   1.00057394815
 2008:03   1182.613638564 -2.305220364450  -0.07454396978
 2008:04   1181.187383370 -4.024678234108  -1.78020944735
 2009:01   1179.454167723 -6.192178576374  -3.89081009917
 2009:02   1178.310526229 -7.370308633862  -5.25194542680
 2009:03   1177.728773210 -7.726367655742  -5.85614586598
 2009:04   1177.354975502 -8.731794373319  -6.44474933690
 2010:01   1177.448940927 -8.155434122842  -6.24597005575
 2010:02   1177.934304212 -6.897275361813  -5.35477382249
 2010:03   1177.814718149 -6.313050159337  -4.79892041439
 2010:04   1178.173048165 -3.867477825021  -3.01433520436
 2011:01   1178.520197883 -1.886795942384  -0.93396983997
 2011:02   1179.017076327 -1.603883188944   0.70655009886
 2011:03   1179.337141976 -1.392477963811   1.60836876570
 2011:04   1179.755538434 -0.312408194880   2.40056293166
 2012:01   1180.380990437  0.021895309805   2.93204951002
 2012:02   1180.587862082 -0.446920710355   2.65355787035
 2012:03   1180.970602041  1.270740831142   3.15588389154
 2012:04   1181.359286198  0.672718119304   3.18623803270
 2013:01   1181.829027227  0.656964461837   3.30882934397
 2013:02   1182.237881389  0.659956288971   3.22080506170
 2013:03   1182.672839787  1.066734063480   3.33569781160
 2013:04   1183.055704003  0.929803498498   3.30016556913
 2014:01   1183.511040827  0.441269484279   3.13005039019
 2014:02   1184.109907735  1.524486593420   3.52204565274
 2014:03   1184.638602820  1.403751224317   3.66800077880
 2014:04   1185.226501549  1.431141843820   3.86721535073
 2015:01   1185.631656808  1.377277214622   3.80262958058
 2015:02   1186.163678325  1.625817726747   3.92579693580
 2015:03   1186.569278408  1.596017280207   3.89643862046
 2015:04   1187.162036742  1.858245469513   4.10633273892
 2016:01   1187.571269080  1.723202815338   4.06022825276
 2016:02   1187.878311848  1.257522613939   3.76840411355



Linear Regression - Estimation by Least Squares
Dependent Variable NSA_LOG
Quarterly Data From 1949:04 To 2016:02
Usable Observations                       267
Degrees of Freedom                        262
Centered R^2                        0.9924565
R-Bar^2                             0.9923413
Uncentered R^2                      0.9999923
Mean of Dependent Variable       1139.1422237
Std Error of Dependent Variable    36.4481584
Standard Error of Estimate          3.1897144
Sum of Squared Residuals         2665.6608086
Regression F(4,262)                 8617.4886
Significance Level of F             0.0000000
Log Likelihood                      -686.0346
Durbin-Watson Statistic                0.1203

    Variable                        Coeff      Std Error      T-Stat      Signif
************************************************************************************
1.  Constant                      32.37916964   6.01128374      5.38640  0.00000016
2.  NSA_LOG{8}                     1.13588357   0.12715144      8.93331  0.00000000
3.  NSA_LOG{9}                    -0.14677556   0.15169384     -0.96758  0.33414769
4.  NSA_LOG{10}                   -0.09243268   0.15200578     -0.60809  0.54365678
5.  NSA_LOG{11}                    0.07782763   0.12686044      0.61349  0.54008454


